There is a face-to-face meeting this Saturday, May 14, at the Great Falls Public Library. Doors open at 10, and the meeting should start around 10:15. I will attempt to broadcast via WebEx; stay tuned to the GGT Yahoo! group for details.
- According to Effective Volume considerations, we are in a confirmed "short signal". Aggregate money flow is moving out of the market. According to backtesting, new long positions should not be initiated.
- The Intermediate-length Elder Force Index timer, applied to the GGT universe, is confirmed in cash, and has been since 5/3.
- The short-term VTI timer, which is based on the day-day movements of the GGT long-cash ratio (LCR), is confirmed in cash and has been since 5/3.
- ALL slopes of the GGT pricing moving averages are now negative. The last time this occurred from a long --> cash view point was 8/12/10, and we stayed in these conditions until 9/7/10. This means that on all time frames less than 66 days in length that the average daily change is now negative $/day, and this is unhealthy for our portfolios.
- ALL slopes of the GGT LCR moving averages are now negative. This does not look at price, but at the ratio of stocks in the database with a favorable recommendation (LONG) to those with unfavorable recommendations (CASH). Right now the all slopes less than 66d in length are negative, which means that we are losing more stocks to the CASH side on a per-day basis than we are gaining. Put another way, your stock-picking abilities must improve dramatically as the pool of stocks gets smaller day-over-day.
- Bongo Weekly: this is RED, which says for Contra ETFs, the overall trend for contra ETFs is down. WE ARE EARLY to move en masse into contra ETFs or to short stocks on an intermediate basis, as indicated by this tool.
- Bull Power: This is a measure of Elder's, and it basically looks at the highs of the bar in relation to the 13d moving average. In the chart above, this is POSITIVE, which is BULLISH for Contras.
- Bear Power: This too is from Elder, and it looks at the LOWS of the bar in relation to the 13d moving average. To confirm an uptrend, we want this to be positive (lows above the 13d). Right now it is NEGATIVE, which is BEARISH for Contras.
- Force Index: Another Elder indicator, I'm showing two calculation methods. The top one is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the lower one is a Simple Moving Average (SMA). When these two are the same color, they are aligned. When they are mixed colors, we have uncertainty. We are mixed, with the EMA showing LONG (for contras) and the SMA showing CASH (for contras). We are early for Contra ETFs according to this system.
- (skip 2d Force Index)
- The chart below the Elder work is a MACD. Here, we have a positive histogram (black bar is positive), so we are uptrending, and have been for the past 4 days. This is a good sign overall, and with the MACD and MACD Signal lines in the lower half, we are poised to move upward a significant amount if the trend continues. Color the MACD bullish.
- (skip %B)
- The chart below the %B ribbon is a graphical view of the 13d and 34d SLOPES of these moving averages. The faster moving average, the 13d, is positive, which means on this time scale that contra ETFs are gaining in $/day. The slower moving average, the 34d, is negative, which means that on this time scale that contra ETFs are LOSING in $/day. Hence, we have a mixed signal -- I want both of these to be positive, and until they are, we are early for Contra ETFs in terms of momentum.
- Finally, in the lower panes, we see moving averages superimposed with the daily price candles. NONE of the moving averages have crossed each other from below, so we certainly are early here.
- SMN -- solid longer-term LEV support, short-term LEV just starting to positively diverge from the SmEV. Presently in the middle of a Darvas box which found a floor on 5/2, so the downside is defined. GGT Affirmed Long on Friday.
- FAZ -- solid longer-term LEV support, short-term LEV started the positive divergence in earnest on Friday. In the middle of a Darvas box which formed the floor on 5/2. Weekly tools do NOT confirm a move into this ETF, but it is hard to argue with LEV. GGT Long on Friday.
- FXP -- good looking longer-term LEV pattern, but short-term LEV pattern is mixed. Broke out of the upper right corner of a Darvas box on 5/3 at $26.49 or $26.76 (depending on how you calculate the box), and this typically is a bullish move. GGT Long on Friday.
- SKF -- same as FAZ but with a 2x leverage amount instead of FAZ' 3x leverage. GGT Long on Friday.
- SDS -- although this is a GGT "Cash" recommended ETF, it is only so because volume is relatively poor. The strength of SDS is a +3, which means that if we get ANY volume here it will convert to a New Long. LEV patterns on both the short-term and long-term basis are strong.