There is a meeting on March 14 at the Great Falls Public Library in Great Falls Virginia. Starting time is 10:15, although doors open at 10:00. I will make every attempt to provide content via WebEx, but I do not presently know about the quality of the connection from this library.
- The GGT price index fell -0.67% on Monday and another -1.17% on Tuesday on volume that is within the normal bell-curve of 50d MA volume. The drop of 2600 stocks with an average over 1% is significant and we need to pay attention right now.
- The slopes of the pricing moving averages are now BEARISH through the 34d time frame, which is not good for the bulls.
- The "slope of the slopes" of the pricing moving averages has been downward for the last three days (through 5/3), indicating that not only are the aforementioned price/day changes negative, they are accelerating in this downward value, losing more and more each day. This is not good for our portfolios.
- The Short-Term VTI timer has signaled a move to CASH.
- The intermediate-termed Elder Force Index timer that I apply to the entire database has signaled a move to CASH as of the close of 5/3. This has been confirmed using both exponential and simple moving averages. Initiating new long positions on an intermediate-termed basis is not advised at this time.
- Over the last two days, the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), which is a measure of the number of stocks in the database with a LONG rating compared to those that are recommended CASH, has dropped -11% on Monday and another -28% on Tuesday. The present value is now 1.517, indicating that 1616 stocks have a long recommendation and 1065 have a cash recommendation. The low point for cash-rated stocks was 803 which occurred on 4/29, so we have a significant increase in the numbers.
- More ominous is that the slopes on the LCR are starting to turn negative, with all slopes below 21d being negative. We want the database to be expanding (positive, green) during a pullback to give us confidence to enter, and right now, we are not seeing this trend continue.