We have a meeting Saturday morning at the Great Falls Public Library in Great Falls Virginia. Doors open at 10:00 and we'll get started around 10:15.
WebEx information will be posted in the GGT group today. The library indicates that they have a high-speed connection in the meeting room.
- The GGT price index fell -1.39% on volume that was -9% below the 50d MA. This volume level is within a standard deviation so we have a solid distribution day. In fact, we've had several over the last few weeks:
5/11: -1.39% on -9% 50d MA volume
5/6: -1.93% on -4%
5/4: -1.01% on +6%
5/3: -1.17% on +5%
4/29: -1.21% on -3%
4/18: -1.3% on +3%
4/12: -1.11% on +1%
7 distribution days in the last month is a wakeup call. We need to be paying attention right now.
- ALL of the slopes of the pricing moving averages (MAs) have turned negative again. This is measured from the 5d to the 65d. This is BEARISH, as it indicates on all those time scales that we are losing $/day in our portfolios.
- ALL of the directions of the pricing slopes are pointing down, again through the 65d MA. This means that not only are we losing money day over day (see the previous bullet), that we're doing it at an accelerating rate downward. Protection of profits is a good place to be.
- The Short-Term LCR Change Timer moved long Tuesday night and I entered a VTI position yesterday at the open, and was immediately stopped out in the afternoon. The timer is now LONG-CASH (0), indicating that if today is a down day there is a high probability that it will move back to cash tonight.
- Elder's Force Index timer is clearly negative by several days. Stocks should not be purchased on the long side.
- Despite the downdraft yesterday, the LCR only fell -4%. This means that there was not a broad, deep selloff, which is actually dangerous. Put another way, had the LCR moved down quickly, we could expect a bounce, but since it moved down only gradually, I expect to see continued bleeding.
- ALL of the slopes of the LCR are still negative - 6th contiguous day. ALL but the 8d slope are pointing downward. The database is contracting day-over-day faster than it was yesterday, so stock selection abilities must improve dramatically.
- UUP: EV is not supportive of a move into this ETF, but it has flashed a buy signal in the weekly and daily charts based purely on price.
- SMN: LEV made a real good move in terms of the short-term LEV yesterday, and longer-termed LEV is solid.
- DUG: mixed signals on EV, so this one gets a pass.
- 13d Force Index (both calculation methods) are not confirming (EMA is negative = sell, SMA is positive = hold),
- 13d and 34d slopes are both positive
- all relevant EMAs are aligned properly: 8d > 13d > 21d > 34d > 55d > 140d