We have a meeting this Saturday at the Great Falls Public Library in Northern Virginia. Doors open at 10 and the presentation will start around 10:15
- Tuesday was a good day in terms of prices, with the GGT price index jumping another +1.1%. For the Monday-Tuesday sequence we've moved almost +2.0%, which does not erase the damage of last week, but it certainly helps.
- The slopes of the pricing moving averages are showing some signs of life. The 5d and 65d (only) have now crossed back into positive territory. The 65 moved back because it has only been negative for 2 days -- shallow, and the 5d moved positive because we are seeing pricing strength in this local bounce.
- ALL the pricing moving average slopes are pointing higher, independent of whether they are negative or positive. This is necessary for a bull to continue, and so far, we have two consecutive days of this occurring. The bulls are regaining control on a short term basis.
- As stated yesterday, the Short-Term LCR Change Timer based on the LCR and tradeable with the VTI has moved LONG. If you choose to play this (I will this morning), enter at the open this morning.
- The Intermediate-Termed Elder Force Index timer is in CASH, but only barely. If today is a solid day on volume and price appreciation, we could see the FI(13) signals move LONG with the close of markets today. This would be bullish overall if we can get the change.
- Pascal's Money Flow signal is still SHORT, although money did flow back into the markets yesterday. Despite the fact that money flowed in, there are few GGT + EV candidates to review, so while I may frustrate some of you, I'm not going to be aggressively bullish at all in this market.
- The Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), which is a measure of the GGT universe in terms of the number of stocks with a LONG rating compared to those with a CASH rating, has moved up +2% on Monday and +19% on Tuesday. ALL of the LCR moving average slopes are NEGATIVE, which is bearish. Despite this, ALL of the slopes are pointing upward from their negative levels, which is encouraging. I simply do not move long in an aggressive manner when the LCR is negative.
- Elder FI(13), using both the EMA and SMA methods, have *just* moved long with yesterday's action. This is calculated a bit differently than my personal method, so I'm inclined to tip the balance towards moving long since the past trend has been long. It is a coin toss though...
[For those of you wondering, my personal method adjusts for additions and deletions of stocks so not to skew the calculations (much like how the DJ30 index is calculated when a stock is added or removed), whereas the presentation above simply considers the basket held as of the date on the right side of the graph. The history shown to the left is not the same history that actually existed, hence the difference in calculation methods]
- The 13d and 34d slopes are pointing upward (bullish) AND they are about to both move positive in value. This is based on price, not volume, and I think it important that we consider moving long when these both cross into positive territory.
- The MACD is still showing a negative histogram -- this is bearish in general
- %B is already "yellow", which means we're entering overbought conditions. Any further movement upward will cause this to turn pink or red, which is not a time to purchase stocks.
- EL beat guidance on May 5th and has run up nicely into that announcement. AB is a 76, which is just on the lower threshhold of 80 (an arbitrary value I may add) that generally is my cut off. 2d thrust is barely negative, and there has been some money flow out of EL over the past day or two. Nevertheless, this looks "ok" if it can move higher that the previous day's high and resume LEV inflow.
- ENDP has an AB Buy Signal level that is lower than I like at 55 -- I prefer numbers close to 100. The stock is about to clear a Darvas box level of $42.37, but the AB level suggests that caution should be advised. This stock has been strongly accumulated by large players on both short term and long term EV scales, so give it a review. The stock is guiding in-line.
- MGLN looks poor from a couple of different viewpoints. First, from a long-term view, LEV is below the SmEV levels, showing lack of institutional support over longer time frames. On a shorter-term view, the LEV is falling, showing distribution. The AB level is 49, and there is less than $2 upside until we hit the upper active boundary. This one gets a pass from me.
- MENT looks good from a LEV perspective on both short-term and longer-term scales. Volume is steadily increasing, which I consider positive. LEV is diverging from SmEV, which I love in overall patterns. The AB level of 98 translates to a projected UB level of $18+, or over a 25% potential move up from here. MENT is guiding up in earnings AND revenues, which I consider positive. This is a buy.
- MSTR isn't providing guidance on earnings and revenues, which I always consider suspect. Short term LEV has been decreasing after two large-block orders on 5/5 move LEV up dramatically -- e.g., there has been some selling as of late. This is also reflected in the slight negative value of the 2D-Thrust values. Upside looks good according the AB signal, but the recent distribution of LEV gives me pause. I'm passing on MSTR.
- CA has started new LEV accumulation -- short term looks strong, longer-term is poor but improving. Active boundary levels show that there is 10-15% upside from here with defined risk to the downside. CA is guiding inline and has earnings announcements on May 12th (tomorrow) after the market closes, so I'm going to give this a pass.