Monday, October 20, 2014

Continued Thawing, Monday, October 20th Close

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Overview: continued progress on the long side of the market, but not all indicators are in alignment.  Still acting on 50% equities, 50% cash signal.

Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  LONG
Intermediate-term timer:  MIXED (transitioned from CASH to MIXED)
Long-term timer:  CASH
Percentage stocks in database that are long:  22.2%, up 2.9% from Friday
Long-Cash Ratio:  0.285, up 0.037 from Friday's value, 3035 stocks in database

Timer Table:


The intermediate-termed timer has moved to "MIXED", which means that not all of its internal signals are in alignment.  This is a test period for the markets, and we've failed at this point in the past (hence why I built in more than one indicator).  We need this timer to transition to LONG in the next day or so in order to have confidence in the overall signals.

Slope Table:


The LCR finished the day at 0.285 and is up over the past 5 days.  The left side of the table shows that the 13d slope has transitioned positive, and you can see on the right side that the slope of the slopes are all still positive.

This is constructive.

Cumulative Tick Chart


This is a transitory chart.  We still are not seeing more 52-week New Highs than New Lows on the NYSE, which should give you pause.  You can see this in the top plot.

With respect to the middle plot, we saw an acceleration of buying in the afternoon today.  Again, constructive.

The bottom plot has positive slopes for all indicated time frames, and the "white is above red", so we're in buy mode.

Strategy

With the short-term timer LONG but the others still in MIXED/CASH, I am operating on a 50% cash position / 50% equity target.  My present holdings are:


I will continue to purchase from my Dividend Portfolio, Greenfield Bargains, Greenfield Leaders, and Steady-Eddies portfolios.

I buy strength.  The price must be 0.1% higher than yesterday's high, and this new level is entered as a BUY STOP, GTC, active after 9:45 a.m.  If the order does not trigger with the day's action (price never took out the level) then I adjust downward the next day's order as long as the stock is in some form of GGT "Long" status.  If you don't know what this means just ask.

Stocks are listed in my stock file, which can be found in my shared Dropbox folder.  Send me a note if you are not a member or if you do not know where to look for this information.

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Standard disclaimers apply.  Please, do your own diligence, and take ownership for your actions.  You are solely responsible for your trades and I have ZERO responsibility regarding what you do.  This blog is intended to show you what I am doing in the present market climate.

Regards,

pgd