Friday, October 10, 2014

Reversal -- Thursday, Oct 9 Close

Overview:  Timing signal from yesterday to enter up to 50% equity reversed with today's action.  Back to cash.

Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer:  CASH
Long-Cash Ratio:  FELL -12% to 0.215 

A reversal.  Back to cash.

Slope Table:

No extended commentary required.  A reversal.  2nd time this has occurred in the last month.

Cumulative Tick, by Index:

The number of 52-week New Lows completely dominated across the board, and this is not what we need.

Strong algorithmic selling across the board in all major indexes, all day (middle plots).

Overall trend, although attempting to bounce back during the day, was characterized by lower highs and lower lows.  Today was a selling market, which we all know.  No hidden nuttin' -- the exits were clearly visible.

Cumulative Tick

Almost the same commentary here, so not much to add.  Across the board, selling at the NYSE, and much of it was program selling.  Note the lower low on the (white) cumulative tick -- this isn't a favorable setup.


A signal reversal, when everything was previously in cash, means get back to cash.  Wrong time to enter.  I entered a number of positions today and I'm setting a 1% trailing stop loss, GTC, on all positions except those in my Dividend Payers portfolio (which is not timed using the macro signal).

Reversals happen, and the important thing is to be nimble.  I may get a signal to re-enter on Friday (for Monday's market), or Monday (for Tuesday's market), etc.  I simply do not know.  Positions with sell orders that do not execute when a new buy signal is generated will be "accepted", e.g., the sell orders will be cancelled.

Although we are quite oversold here, we could go lower.


Standard disclaimers apply.