Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Early Buy Signal - Tuesday, October 14 Close

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Overview:  Effectively a repeat of the same signal last week.  Early, tentative.

Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  LONG
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer:  CASH
Long-Cash Ratio:  Increased +19% to 0.189 (hit a low of 0.158 on 10/13)
Percentage Stocks with a "Long" Recommendation:  15.9%, up 2.2% from 13.7% on 10/13 (incredibly oversold).

Slope Table:


The right side of the table has a bit more green on all measured time frames, so the past two days are showing a significant slowing of the decline in the number of stocks that are moving from a LONG status to a CASH status.

The left side of the table shows that the 2d, 3d, and 5d moving averages are above zero.  This means that we're starting a trajectory upward, and is my initial buy signal.

This buy signal failed last week -- it may fail again, I don't know.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

Cumulative Tick:



The cumulative tick chart shows that we are early on multiple indicators.  The top series simply shows that we are still seeing far more 52-week lows than we are highs -- in fact, it ticked upward near the end of the day, which is bad.

The middle plot shows the behavior of algorithmic buying/selling.  We started to see some buying going on early, but as the day progressed, we eventually gave up the ground we gained.  Again, not a good sign.

The most telling thing here is the bottom plot.  Steady downward slope of the longest moving average (red), telling us that there is far more selling going on than buying.  This is not a good market to be buying stocks, period.

Strategy:

For those stocks that are GGT "New Long", "Aff. Long", or "Long", with a Calmar Ratio of greater than 3.0 and listed on the "Dashboard" tab (check the dropbox file), I'll place an order to enter 50% of a position size.  For my dividend portfolio this is a 2% position.  For my Greenfield Leaders and Greenfield Bargains portfolio it will be determined in the morning -- if you're interested send me a private message and I'll send you my allocations.

I'm suspect of this market, so I'll keep entering on the signals but I'm not going to be overly aggressive.  I am honing the watch list though, and the "Dashboard" tab of the dropbox stock file has the latest listings of what I consider value stocks.

I'm not losing any money in this market despite having some positions in my dividend portfolio.  Granted, I'm not making any money, so the system seems to be working.

Here's the latest equity curve:



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Standard disclaimers apply.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd