Thursday, October 9, 2014

New Short-term Entry Signal, Wed, Oct 8 Close

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Overall:  We have a change in the short-term timer status, which will move up to 50% of my holdings into the market.

Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  LONG
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer:  CASH
Long-Cash Ratio:  Increased +30% to 0.244
# Stocks with LONG rating:  Increased +3.8% to 19.6%

Slope Table:


The trigger to move into equity markets was signaled using the 2d, 3d, and 5d, indicators above.  Historically, this has proven to be a good entry, but of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine.  Aside from yesterday, we do have a good amount of "green" on the right side of the table, indicating that the selling, while continuing, was doing so on a less-per-day-over-day rate.  Net-net, not a perfect signal, but good enough to start looking for stocks.

Cumulative Tick:


The top plot shows that the 52-week New Lows are still significantly outpacing the 52w New Highs.  This is NOT a good setup for a sustained bull, so this needs to change within the next day or two.  Look for green over red.

The middle plot shows that at about 1:30 pm ET today the buying algorithms kicked in.  Buying remained strong for the remainder of the day.

The bottom plot is the most bullish plot that we've had in some time.  This shows that all the slopes of the cumulative tick averages are now positive, and it shows that we have a solid push of the real-time cumulative tick over the averages, causing them to turn up.  This is a good signal.

What we need over the next few days is for the white to remain significantly above the red average, which will pull everything upward.  This means that buying is occurring in the market, and it means that the tide will start lifting all the boats.

Strategy

My greenfield leaders list is my go-to list for stocks that are leading the market:


These stocks will most likely continue to perform well in the near future.

The following stocks have solid fundamentals but have been beaten down below their 50d MAs.  Value could be recognized quickly in these, especially those near their 50d MAs, and they could jump to the greenfield leaders list quite easily:



Dividend stocks that are on my buy list are as follows:



The top dividend stocks are beaten down -- you can see this in the close-50 column.  The bottom three stocks have held up well.  All of these stocks have accelerating dividends, relative to the prior quarter as well as one year ago.

In intend to add to my existing dividend portfolio positions.  These positions are rated some form of long status in the GGT stock file, which is available to subscribers in the shared dropbox folder.

I intend to buy other long-rated stocks that can be found on the "Dashboard" tab of the file.  I do not do any form of allocation with the dividend portfolio -- each stock gets 2% of my capital until I have 50 positions.

I intend to buy other long-rated stocks that are in the greenfield leaders list.  I will be determining positions using Sharp allocations.  The actual allocation amounts are listed in the stocks file on the Portfolio tab.

Entry for all positions will be using a BUY STOP that is 0.1% higher than today's high, measured after 9:45 a.m.

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As with all my postings, you are responsible for your own decisions and I am not.  Please due your diligence, and please take ownership for your own actions.

Regards,

pgd