Friday, September 19, 2014

Friday, September 19th Update

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer: CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer: LONG
Long-Cash Ratio: 0.675, decreased -5% from previous day
% Longs in the Database: 40.3%, down 1.2% from yesterday

Slope Table:



(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Slope Chart:


Cumulative Tick Chart:



(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)


Commentary:

Any headway that we made Thursday was given back today.  All the slopes of the Long-Cash Ratio (LCR), which measures the bullish expansion of the stock database, are now again negative.  You can see that in the slopes table (on the left, all red) and in the slope chart, which looks back over the past two weeks.

The earliest we could see a buy signal would be Monday night.

With respect to the Cumulative TICK chart, the selling algos kicked in strongly around 11:33 and finally hit bottom around 1:20 as can be seen in my annoations above.  From that point forward the market essentially went on break, with much less buying/selling going on at the NYSE.

Key here is that we accelerated downward in the 10d EMA on the cumulative TICK, which is causing us to delay re-entry on the long side. 

There is no sense entering the market on either side at the present time -- risk is higher than the reward we could capture.

Strategy:

I'm still operating on a 50% sell signal.  A couple of big names triggered to the "CASH" side with today's action -- AAPL and ORCL -- and hence I'm going to unload those positions with a 1% trailing stop loss.  AAPL is comfortably above the waterline at +5% and ORCL is flat, so net/net will show these trades capturing money.

No buying Monday.

I'm traveling Sunday - Wednesday next week to Redwing, MN.  Writing will be later in the evening (most likely), and if you get the writings delivered to your email box you may realize that the cutoff for this is 10:30-ish PM.  It is doubtful that I'll be back in my hotel room with enough time to make this cut-off, so you'll have to manually check the blog if we are to get a timing signal change.

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As with all my postings, you are responsible for your own actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,


pgd