Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Tuesday, Sept 16 Update

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer: CASH
Intermediate-term timer: CASH
Long-term timer: LONG
Long-Cash Ratio: Fell -1% to 0.703

LCR Slope Table:


(right-click on the figure to open in a new tab or window)

Cumulative Tick Chart:


(right-click on the figure to open in a new tab or window)

Commentary:

The most important takeaway from the LCR chart above is that we are starting to see some "green" on the right side of the table.  We need green over there to see green on the left side -- the left side always lags the right side.

(For your science types, the left side is the first derivative, and the right side is the second derivative.  Science now is concluded for the day).

No "buy" signals yet -- they will not happen until the slopes of the 2d, 3d, and 5d EMAs turn positive.  We're close -- really close -- and another day like today may cause an initial buy signal.

On the other hand, there's nothing bullish about the Cumulative Tick chart.  Nothing.  At the top, red over green means that there are more stocks on the NYSE hitting new 52-week lows than are hitting 52-week highs.  In the middle, there was a buying spree mid-day, but the fact that it remained constant for the majority of the afternoon basically states that the buying faltered.  The bottom graph, which is the Cumulative TICK EMA chart, basically shows that the buying spree kicked in then after 2 pm started to falter (white).  The 10d EMA (red) still has a negative slope, so net-net, more stocks are being sold than are being bought, driving prices down.

Strategy:

Another easy day on Wednesday.  No buy orders, but the shopping list is honed.  Here's a partial excerpt:


(right-click on the figure to open in a new tab or window)

If you're interested in receiving real-time texting or email alerts when these stocks are higher than the previous day's high by 0.1% AND they are projected to take out the strongest down day volume relative to the past 10 down days, then send me an email at the following address:  p d u n c a n [a t} v t {d o t] e d u  (obviously without the spaces, figure out where the 'at' symbol goes, etc.) and include the following information:

Your full name:
Your cell phone number XXX-YYY-ZZZZ
Your cell phone carrier (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, etc.)
Your email

I find that these alerts are interesting in the sense that you see who is moving in the market.  I'm running a test on these and they could prove useful.  I reserve the right to disable or change the alert structure at any time in the future ...

At any rate, no buying of stocks for me on Wednesday -- I'm waiting for an entry signal.  I'd really like the Cumulative TICK 10d EMA (red) to have a positive slope before I get back in.  

We'll see when this occurs.

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Standard disclaimers apply.  See earlier posts as well as the left side of this blog.

Regards,

pgd