Thursday, September 25, 2014

Wednesday, Sept 24th Update

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer:  LONG (by a thread, by the way)
Long-Cash Ratio:  0.380, falling -4% from yesterday and 14th decreasing day of last 16
Percent Longs in Database:  27.5%, fell another -0.9%

Slope Table:



Cumulative Tick Chart:


Commentary:

We still have a sea of red on the slope table -- obviously not good for being long in the market.  The Long-Cash Ratio has fallen to 0.38, so for every 38 stocks that are rated "long", there are 100 that are recommended to be in "cash".

Buyer beware.

There is no question that we are oversold.  We can go lower though.  Yesterday's "strength", and I use the term loosely, was not pervasive across all market segments, and was largely window dressing as far as I'm concerned.  As evidence of this I provide the right side of the slope table.  The right side shows that the longest time frames are still accelerating downward, and until we get several strong days (green) for all measured time frames, it is not safe to buy stocks en masse.  Yes, feel free to cherry pick, but I'm a longer-term investor, not a day trader.

Regarding the Cumulative Tick chart, the number of 52 week New Highs is well below the number of 52-week New Lows on the NYSE and this is a huge stop sign for me.  I don't care how oversold we are, until this reverses, I'm not buying.  Period.

A good initial sign is that there was strong buying on the NYSE yesterday.  Not widespread, but for the measured TICK, where I need at least 500 stocks per minute ending the transaction with a bump upward in price, we got it.  We need more of this.

Lastly, the longer-term moving average (red) of the Cumulative TICK is still negative.  Again, bad news.  Until the instantaneous TICK (white) moves above this, it's better to be on the sidelines.

Strategy:

I'm still operating on a 50% cash position.  Stocks and ETFs are being closed, per my GGT recommendations that I calculate nightly.  Many of these have positive balances, and hence, I'm capturing equity:



Green dots above represent new highs for equity, and this is a capture of my TradeStation blotter for all accounts.

I have several pending sell orders for today.  The 1% trailing stop loss, active after 9:45 am ET, works well to capture rising equity prices but skip the opening clearing of the book.  Being sold are full positions in SSO, SPY, ROP, XLB, SIAL, XLF, ABT, and CP.

Check the GGT stock listing, available in the Dropbox folder for a clearer view of GGT ratings.

I have no buy orders pending.  Of course, I have a watch list, and I keep it updated, but I'm not buying anything today.

The earliest that we could see a short-term buy signal would be today, if it is an awesome, +2-3% day across all equity markets (not likely), or back-to-back good days today and tomorrow.  Possible, but who knows?  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own trading/investing decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd