Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Status, September 3, 2014

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Short term timer:  LONG
Intermediate term timer:  LONG
Long-term timer:  LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  1.649, 1% DECREASE from previous day

In table form, here are the LCR slopes as well as the slope of the slopes:



(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Commentary:

The LCR "slopes of the LCR slopes" have all turned negative on a day-over-day basis, showing a pause in the markets.  This can be seen on the right side of the table.  Nevertheless, the left side of the table is solidly green, so we are in an uptrend as a market.

I took a few profits today in my leading stocks as I've been in the market for 16 days and I'm starting to see a few more of my holdings stall/pause.  We could resume upward, or we could continue downward in a slow drift -- your crystal ball is as good as mine. The one item that made me take 25% off my highest-advanced stocks was this (see the circled area in the figure below):



(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

The instantaneous cumulative TICK of the NYSE moved below the 10d MA of the same value, which is a significant change compared to the last 16 trading days.  This may be temporary, or it may not.  Again, I have no idea, but locking in a few profits when this occurs is part of my trading plan.

I'm still over 85% invested.  As of today's close, aside from the cumulative TICK, we're looking pretty good overall.  Thursday and Friday's action will be interesting.

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Regards,

pgd