Thursday, September 11, 2014

Close of 9/11 Markets

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer: CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH
Long-term timer:  LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  reversed the downward trend; up +1% to 1.062

LCR Slope Table:

(click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Cumulative TICK Chart:


(click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Comments:

For the first time in 6 trading days the slope of the LCR slopes, across all measured time frames, has turned positive.  This is shown in the top table on the right hand side -- all the values are positive and green.  This condition is necessary for the slopes to turn positive -- this is shown on the left side of the table.  We are early -- all the slopes are still negative, but the right side tells us that they are LESS negative than yesterday, so we are not falling as fast.

The analogy is that we're driving a car backwards in the driveway and are slowing as we get closer to the garage.  We are slowing in reverse relative to just a few moments ago, so the speed is "more positive" (less negative) than it was a few moments ago.

Think about it.

If this keeps up the left side of the table will turn green, and we'll get our buy signals.  We're not there yet.  Take Friday off and spend time with the family.

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The bottom TICK chart shows a couple of things.  First, the top panel is the New High / New Low (NHNL) for the NYSE.  We've had two consecutive days of a larger number of New Lows relative to New Highs.  Again, not a good sign if you want to be long in the markets.

The bottom cumulative TICK values show that we're still seeing more selling on the NYSE than buying.  The instantaneous value (white) was virtually sideways all day, within a tight range.  Volume was relatively normal (slightly light) so although 9/11 is certainly important, the traders were on the floor doing what they normally do.

When we see a tightly-ranged instantaneous TICK it's because there is a battle going on between the buyers and sellers.  Today they were evenly matched.

We need the white trace to move above the red trace, which is the 10d EMA of the cumulative TICK.  It may happen on Friday, or it may not.  You guessed it -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.

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Strategy:

I'm operating on a 50% sell signal.  A number of positions fired to cash today, locking in gains or preventing further losses.

I am not a buyer in this market, although I have my watch list established.

The short-term timer will (most likely) be the first timer to convert back to the LONG side, as it does not require the longer time frames of the intermediate timer.  We're closer but not there.

Like today, Friday will be EZ-PZ.  Sell orders are set, no buying planned, and the weekend is ahead of me.  Need to catch up on the documentation but that's what weekends are made for.

Next entry will be Sunday night.

Make it a great weekend.

Regards,

pgd