Sunday, September 7, 2014

Weekend Update - Close of Friday Sept 5

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  Cash
Intermediate-term timer:  Long
Long-term timer:  Long
Long-Cash Ratio:  dropped for 3rd consecutive day to 1.463

Slope Table:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Timer Status:


Comments:

Despite the gains in the market on Friday, I'm not convinced (yet) that we've resumed the uptrend.  A falling long-cash ratio (LCR) means that more stocks are falling below their historical, optimized levels and this is not good for portfolio growth.  If the tide is flowing out then most boats sink lower...

You can see in the two tables above that no progress was made to reverse the signals of the close of markets on Thursday, September 4th.  With respect to the top table, and the right side of the table, we see that the shortest time frames -- 2d, 3d, and 5d -- slopes of the slopes (SoS') did move positive, but this is hardly convincing.  We need strength on all time frames for the SoS' values, and it is not there.

I've been dumping positions that were underwater as well as taking 25% off the positions that were showing some positive gains since the last signal.  Lots of work, as there are 19 different portfolios to manage in real time, but it's what I signed up to do.  The combined equity curve from these portfolios is as shown:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

The green dots signify new equity highs, and you can see that unwinding some of the losers took me down off those highs.  This is okay; as long as the general trend is from lower left to upper right I'm satisfied and the work is justified.

Strategy

Having raised about 25% cash over the last two days, my strategy is to sit pat for now and let the markets confirm which direction they want to move.  The holdings that I have right now are performing fine and if the market continues higher they will do well.  Here's the holdings dashboard:

 
(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Until the short-term timer turns positive I will not be adding to any of these positions.  Note that many of them have an "*" by their name; they have sell-orders pending at the 25% level and simply did not trigger on Friday.  They may trigger on Monday -- I don't know.

It's important to keep the shopping list handy though, as we may get a confirming "move back into the market" signal as early as Monday night.  While the following list is subject to change, and is only partial through the symbol SHPG due to the size of my screen, it's been a fairly stable list for a while:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

To save you the effort of typing in the symbols here they are in total:

AAP
AFSI
AGN
ALK
APT
ARII
BABY
BIDU
BITA
CMG
CO
CP
CTP
CW
DAL
DXCM
EMES
ENPH
ENV
EQM
FB
FNHC
GIII
GILD
HBI
HCLP
HDB
HEES
HOLI
HTLD
IDTI
IG
JBLU
JLL
KS
LAD
LEAF
LUV
MAR
MNST
NEO
NFLX
NVGS
NXPI
OTEX
PEIX
PJC
PL
PRSC
R
RCL
RFMD
SAVE
SHPG
SKX
SNX
SWKS
TPC
TUES
UAL
UEIC
URI
UVE
VTNR
WGP
WRES
XCRA

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

pgd