Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Update - Close of Monday, Sept 8

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  LONG
Long-term timer:  LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  falling, 4th consecutive day to 1.384

Slope Table:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Cumulative Tick Chart:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Comments:

No re-enter signal on Monday.

The slope of the 8d EMA of the long-cash ratio (LCR) moved negative against a backdrop of all the slopes of the slopes showing negative.  This effectively negated Friday's attempt at a rally.  We are one step closer to a sell signal, but of course, we are not there.

With respect to the cumulative tick (CT), along with the EMAs on the CT, we have two negative things that are on-going in the short term:

1) the slope of the 10d CT is negative.  The tide is flowing out and boats are falling with the tide.  This is evidenced (independently) by my LCR value.
2) all of the day-over-day CT EMAs are also negative in slope, AND, they are all below the 10d EMA of the CT.

We will need a strong Tuesday to reverse this pattern.  Futures are barely positive as I write this.

Strategy:

No buying today (Tuesday).  The short-term timer is in CASH because the LCR is falling.  Do not buy when the LCR falls.  Wait for the 2d, 3d, and the 5d LCR slopes are turning positive from negative.  Refer to the first table in this entry.  With respect to the LCR "slope" table, you want the right-hand side to reflect GREEN and the left side to transition from red to green.  A new signal will be generated on the day this occurs.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

pgd