Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Intermediate Timer Moves to Cash - Close of Sep 9

Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH (newly transitioned on 9/9)
Long-term timer:  LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  falling, 5th consecutive day to 1.134

Slope / LCR Table:

(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Cumulative Tick Chart:

(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Timer Table:


The short- and medium-term timers have transitioned to cash.  The long-term timer is still "LONG".  The cumulative TICK indicator is starting to accelerate downward, with the 10-day EMA of this value clearly holding a negative slope.  This is not good to being long in the market.

 Although you can't see it, the LCR fell -18% relative to yesterday.   This is a large drop, so even though volume was not appreciably high today, a large number of stocks fell significantly in price action.  Read what you want into the lack of volume.


In general, with rare exception, I do not buy stocks when the 10d EMA of the cumulative TICK is negative in slope.  I wait for this to flatten out to show that buying is starting to come back.  We're not there yet.

I intend to raise cash to 50% and unload positions (100%) that are below the water line.  Like usual I do this with a 1% trailing stop loss (TSL) which activates at 9:40-ish.

If Wednesday is a strong day up (reversal), I will probably kill any open orders that have not filled that would have taken me to 50% cash.  A reversal will have to be characterized by the instantaneous TICK line (the white one in the figure above) moving above the 10d (the red one) and heading on a positive trajectory upward.

Your crystal ball is as good as mine.  Protect your profits if the market continues to fall.


As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Contact me if you have any questions.