Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Intermediate Timer Moves to Cash - Close of Sep 9

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer:  CASH
Intermediate-term timer:  CASH (newly transitioned on 9/9)
Long-term timer:  LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  falling, 5th consecutive day to 1.134

Slope / LCR Table:


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Cumulative Tick Chart:


(right-click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Timer Table:





Comments

The short- and medium-term timers have transitioned to cash.  The long-term timer is still "LONG".  The cumulative TICK indicator is starting to accelerate downward, with the 10-day EMA of this value clearly holding a negative slope.  This is not good to being long in the market.

 Although you can't see it, the LCR fell -18% relative to yesterday.   This is a large drop, so even though volume was not appreciably high today, a large number of stocks fell significantly in price action.  Read what you want into the lack of volume.

Strategy

In general, with rare exception, I do not buy stocks when the 10d EMA of the cumulative TICK is negative in slope.  I wait for this to flatten out to show that buying is starting to come back.  We're not there yet.

I intend to raise cash to 50% and unload positions (100%) that are below the water line.  Like usual I do this with a 1% trailing stop loss (TSL) which activates at 9:40-ish.

If Wednesday is a strong day up (reversal), I will probably kill any open orders that have not filled that would have taken me to 50% cash.  A reversal will have to be characterized by the instantaneous TICK line (the white one in the figure above) moving above the 10d (the red one) and heading on a positive trajectory upward.

Your crystal ball is as good as mine.  Protect your profits if the market continues to fall.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

pgd