Monday, September 15, 2014

Close of Monday, Sept 15 Update

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Timer Status:

Short-term timer: CASH
Intermediate-term timer: CASH
Long-term timer: LONG
Long-Cash Ratio:  0.711, fell another 17% from Friday's value
% Longs in Database:  41.6%, falling

Long-Cash Ratio Table:


(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Cumulative Tick Chart:

(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)

Commentary:

A continuation from Friday, but this time with more volume on the selling side.  You can't see it in the values above but I see it in some other tools I have and it was fairly significant.  Sometimes, not always, but sometimes volume increases on the downside due to "exhaustion" and this can often signal a turning point.  We'll see.

The LCR can keep going down from here -- and it can stay low too.  A value of 0.7 means that we are more bearish, and reversals (that last) typically do not occur until we get into the 0.3-0.4 region.  I'm not saying we have to go that low to get a market in which to invest -- I'm simply restating the past.  I invest in the market that is presented to me.

The Cumulative TICK indicator chart reveals more of the same from Friday -- everything is moving down.  Don't even thing of investing in anything until that white line is above the red line.

A head's up here:  although we're not yet triggering the "sell the next 25%" of the position, we're getting closer.  If we have a couple more down days like today we may get such a signal.

Strategy:

A large number of "New Cash" recommendations came in tonight on many of my holdings so I've set 1% TSLs, active from 9:45 a.m. onward, to launch tomorrow.  A few are above the waterline, but most are below by a percent or two, so there will be recorded losses.

I didn't even bother to cull my watch list tonight -- no sense in it, as it is impossible for a buy signal to appear before the close of Wednesday (two trading days from now).

While I'll have the workstation open on Tuesday, I doubt I'll pay much attention, as I have other work to tend to.

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Standard disclaimer and closing apply.

Regards,

pgd