Timer Status:
Short-term timer: CASH
Intermediate-term timer: CASH
Long-term timer: LONG
Long-Cash Ratio: 0.711, fell another 17% from Friday's value
% Longs in Database: 41.6%, falling
Long-Cash Ratio Table:
(right click on the image to open in a new tab or window)
Cumulative Tick Chart:
Commentary:
A continuation from Friday, but this time with more volume on the selling side. You can't see it in the values above but I see it in some other tools I have and it was fairly significant. Sometimes, not always, but sometimes volume increases on the downside due to "exhaustion" and this can often signal a turning point. We'll see.
The LCR can keep going down from here -- and it can stay low too. A value of 0.7 means that we are more bearish, and reversals (that last) typically do not occur until we get into the 0.3-0.4 region. I'm not saying we have to go that low to get a market in which to invest -- I'm simply restating the past. I invest in the market that is presented to me.
The Cumulative TICK indicator chart reveals more of the same from Friday -- everything is moving down. Don't even thing of investing in anything until that white line is above the red line.
A head's up here: although we're not yet triggering the "sell the next 25%" of the position, we're getting closer. If we have a couple more down days like today we may get such a signal.
Strategy:
A large number of "New Cash" recommendations came in tonight on many of my holdings so I've set 1% TSLs, active from 9:45 a.m. onward, to launch tomorrow. A few are above the waterline, but most are below by a percent or two, so there will be recorded losses.
I didn't even bother to cull my watch list tonight -- no sense in it, as it is impossible for a buy signal to appear before the close of Wednesday (two trading days from now).
While I'll have the workstation open on Tuesday, I doubt I'll pay much attention, as I have other work to tend to.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Standard disclaimer and closing apply.
Regards,
pgd
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment